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        您的位置:集萃絲印特印網行業資訊媒體資訊→詳細內容
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        2008年我國紡織服裝鞋帽行業發展趨勢
        集萃絲印特印網  2008-1-3


            我們初步預計,07年全年紡織全行業收入和利潤總額同比分別增長20%和30%左右(其中企業數量增加在10%以上),出口增速在18%?20%之間。行業固定資產投資增速保持高位,主要原料價格運行平穩,內需對行業發展的拉動作用日益增強。

            我們認為,古老的紡織行業正在經歷一次主動和被動的產業轉型和升級,以產能擴張和同質化初級產品貼牌出口為主的行業增長模式正在逐步遭到拋棄,以技術創新、品牌培育和渠道建設為主的行業發展模式正在培育并將成為未來的主流模式。以上市公司為代表的優秀群體已經著手產業轉型和新業務的探索。給予行業08年“中性”的投資評級。

            行業增長較快

            07年10月,紡織行業主要產品生產依然快速增長。其中,化學纖維受益行業復蘇勢頭增長明顯,前十個月國內化學纖維產量為1977萬噸,同比增長了19.26%,特別是粘膠纖維和氨綸纖維受行業復蘇拉動產量同比分別增長了26.26%和28.43%。前十個月國內服裝生產基本保持平穩,同比增長了14.01%,紗和布的產量增速分別在17.26%和13.86%左右,增速環比略有下降。

            但是我們也認為,這種多因素推動下的行業效益高增長很難持續。根據中國第一紡織網的統計數據顯示,2007年1?8月全行業規模以上企業主營收入和利潤總額同比分別增加了22.86%和37.39%,其中企業數量同比增加了10.43%。除了數量增加帶來的效益增長外,我們認為,在內外部壓力之下行業經濟數據依然表現亮麗的主要原因來自于不少企業的多元化投資帶來的高額收益、管理能力提升帶來的期間費用比率下降、技術裝備提升帶來的勞動生產率提高、化纖子行業的全面復蘇和產業國際比較優勢帶來的轉嫁能力。數據顯示,前8個月在全行業主營收入同比增長22.86%的情況下,行業營業費用和管理費用同比分別增加了16.45%和17.63%,明顯低于收入的增長。從分行業看,化學纖維行業受益景氣復蘇表現搶眼,前8個月銷售收入和利潤總額分別增長了25.89%和114.99%。

            從行業盈利能力看,07年前8個月紡織全行業毛利率和利潤率分別為10.82%和3.83%,稅前利潤率與06年全年水平相比微幅上升。我們認為,行業盈利能力保持微幅上升的主要原因在于行業內產品結構的不斷調整、研發、技術裝備投入增加帶來的產品附加值的提升、產業向下游轉移的力度日益加大、企業管理能力的提升等等。我們預計,08年起行業盈利能力基本保持平穩,出現明顯下滑的可能性不大。但是考慮到行業產能的持續擴張、出口增速的下降、成本上升和人民幣升值等內外因素的交困,未來2?3年行業的整體盈利能力也很難有大的提升,基本保持目前的低水平。

            而且,我們認為企業對費用的控制是有一定限度的,未來產品單價提升(或向下游繼續轉讓成本壓力)的邊際效應也將逐步遞減,特別是企業投資收益和化纖子行業的復蘇也有明顯的短期性特征,因此行業07年的利潤高增長未來不具有持續性。

            投資偏熱供給存在壓力

            統計數據顯示,2007年前10個月我國紡織業、紡織服裝鞋帽制造業和化學纖維制造業實際完成投資分別為1230.28億元、593.03億元和213.62億元,同比分別增長了25.40%、43.10%和38.20%。

            去年同期相比,紡織三大子行業的投資增速依然呈現上升勢頭,2007年前10個月我國紡織業、紡織服裝鞋帽制造業和化學纖維制造業投資增速分別比去年上升了3.3個百分點、6.2個百分點和15.20個百分點,行業固定資產依然偏熱。特別是服裝和化纖行業的投資增速遠遠高于同期全國固定資產投資增長26.90%的平均水平。進入壁壘相對較低、投資見效快、國際競爭力較為明顯以及行業景氣使得資金大量流向服裝和化纖子行業。但是行業投資的持續偏熱,特別是投資增速仍然高于出口增速和國內紡織服裝零售總額的增速,將使行業目前結構性產能過剩進一步加劇,也會削弱相應子行業未來的盈利能力。

            我們預計未來行業投資由東向西轉移的趨勢仍將持續并會日益明顯,從中長期看,國內中西部地區將成為紡織服裝行業初級產品的生產基地,而東部地區將逐步發展為以品牌、渠道建設以及新技術研發為主的紡織產業區域。

            內需拉動穩步增強

            隨著國民經濟的持續快速增長,國內居民對紡織服裝的需求日益增加,2000年國內紡織行業內需比為66.80%,2007年前8個月這一比重提升至75%。內需的旺盛已經成為國內紡織行業平穩增長的主要支撐,并將繼續成為行業未來幾年抵御其他負面風險的重要因素之一。

            近年來,國內紡織服裝銷售一直呈現良好的增長態勢,最新統計顯示,07年前10個月國內紡織服裝鞋帽針紡織品類零售總額同比增長了32.6%,超過同期全國社會消費品零售總額增幅14.5個百分點,也遠遠超過同期出口增長19.74的水平。國外歷史經驗顯示,隨著國內居民人均可支配收入的不斷提升,特別是人均GDP突破1000美元之后,對紡織服裝特別是中高檔紡織服裝產品的需求增長將顯著加快,因此內需拉動對中高檔品牌服裝企業的發展更為有利。

            我們預計未來內需市場(特別是農村市場)的開拓,將部分平滑出口增速可能下降帶來的行業波動,保證國內紡織行業繼續保持平穩增長。但必須指出的是,內需的增長是逐步釋放的,出現爆發式增長的可能性不大,我們粗略估計未來國內紡織服裝的內銷能保持10%左右的年增長速度。鑒于對內銷的持續看好,我們認為產品以內銷為主且已經具有一定規模和品牌基礎的企業其未來的成長空間更為廣闊。

            出口價增量減

            根據中國海關的統計數據顯示,07年前10個月國內紡織服裝出口依然保持較快增長,總出口額為1388.70億美元,同比增長了19.74%。值得注意的是,前10個月行業20%的出口增速是在“人民幣自年初又累計升值5%、從07年7月1日起,國內服裝出口退稅率由13%下調為11%、粘膠纖維及制成品出口退稅率由11%下調為5%”的重重壓力之下實現的,反映了行業在目前階段依然具有良好的向下轉嫁能力。

            進一步分析行業出口結構可以發現,價增量減、單位出口價格提升是行業出口金額增長的主要動力。根據統計,2005年、2006年和2007年上半年,我國紡織服裝產品出口單價同比增長了2.43%、15.36%和10.17%。出口產品單價的持續提升也反映了行業整體出口結構的優化和向下游轉嫁成本壓力的能力。不過我們認為出口退稅率下調的影響有一個逐步釋放的過程,隨著后續人民幣升值步伐的可能加快,08年起行業出口增速有一個下降的過程。

            在創新中轉型

            我們認為依然要看到并充分認識行業自身存在的優勢和行業發展的外部有利因素。隨著國內經濟的持續增長和居民可支配收入的不斷提升、財富積累的日益豐厚,未來紡織服裝內需市場的拉動效應將不斷增強;世界經濟仍然處于上升空間,將有效支撐我國紡織服裝出口的繼續增長;我國的紡織行業具有十分完整的產業鏈;我國是全球最大的棉花和化纖生產國,原料資源十分豐富;我國具有眾多發達的產業集群地,為行業內的專業分工、節約成本、提高上下游配套能力提供了良好的發展基礎。正是這些因素的存在構成了我國紡織行業競爭力的扎實基礎;我國的紡織服裝行業市場化程度較高、經歷過多年競爭,應對市場風險具有較好的自我調整能力。

            特別需要指出的是,在行業壓力之下,以上市公司為代表的行業內一批優秀的紡織服裝企業已經在前幾年就著手產業轉型和新業務的探索。這其中主要包括產業鏈上下游的拓展和延伸、行業內的多元化、跨行業多元化、營銷市場由出口向內銷的拓展、盈利環節由生產加工向品牌和零售環節滲透、加大研發投入和設備引進開發新產品獲得更豐厚的盈利空間等,有些轉型較早的企業已經取得了一定的成效,典型的如雅戈爾、七匹狼、偉星股份、瑞貝卡等。另外07年以來一些新業務模式的探索也引起了行業的廣泛關注,并有望成為未來行業發展模式的一個新路徑。典型的如PPG主導的服裝網絡直銷模式。

            關于2008年紡織服裝行業的發展趨勢,我們仍然認為。內外部壓力的共同作用將逼迫行業放慢增長步伐,反思前期高速增長掩蓋下的粗放本質,促使行業通過技術創新、品牌和渠道建設實現轉型和升級,最終改善行業整體的發展環境,提高行業競爭實力。從08年起行業將由前期的快速增長進入平穩增長階段,綜合考慮上文所述的各種正面和負面因素,我們初步預計08年行業收入、利潤總額、出口金額增速將分別下降至15%、20%和15%左右。鑒于行業內產品結構的不斷調整、研發、技術裝備投入增加帶來的產品附加值的提升、產業向下游轉移的力度日益加大、企業管理能力的提升,我們預計08年行業盈利能力基本保持平穩,出現明顯下滑的可能性不大。

         

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